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AI 수요 활황! 삼성, 3분기 이익 783% 급증 '100조 원 돌파' 전망, 기술업계 단일 분기 최고치
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원문 제목: AI 需求暢旺！三星估 Q3 獲利大飆 783%「破百兆韓圜」，創科技業單季新高
핵심 요약
삼성전자가 2026년 3분기 잠정 실적에서 영업이익 107.4조 원(약 801.7억 달러)을 예상하며 전년 동기 대비 약 783% 증가할 것으로 전망했다. 이는 시장 예상치(LSEG SmartEstimate 106.1조 원)를 소폭 상회하며, 기술 기업 최초로 단일 분기 영업이익 100조 원을 돌파할 것으로 보인다. 매출은 195조 원으로 전년 대비 127% 증가할 것으로 예상되며, AI 서버 수요 증가에 따른 DRAM, NAND, HBM 수요 동반 증가가 주요인이다. 삼성과 마이크론은 메모리 수급 불균형이 2028년까지 지속될 것으로 전망했으나, 중국 메모리 업체의 경쟁 심화와 AI 자본지출 둔화 가능성이 중장기 리스크로 제기된다. 트렌드포스는 2026년 4분기 전통 DRAM 계약 가격이 전분기 대비 약 10~15% 상승할 것으로 예상하며, 이는 2분기 약 60% 상승 대비 둔화된 수치다.
메모리 산업 영향 분석
이 원문은 삼성전자의 2026년 3분기 잠정 실적 전망과 AI 인프라 수요에 따른 메모리 업황 호조를 보도한 것이다. 원문에서 직접 확인된 사실은 삼성이 3분기 영업이익 107.4조 원, 매출 195조 원을 잠정 전망했다는 점, AI 서버 수요로 DRAM·NAND·HBM 수요가 동반 증가했다는 점, 삼성과 마이크론이 메모리 수급 불균형이 2028년까지 지속될 것으로 예상한다는 점, 트렌드포스가 2026년 4분기 전통 DRAM 계약 가격이 전분기 대비 10~15% 상승할 것으로 전망한다는 점, 분석가들이 3분기 HBM 단위 출하량이 전분기 대비 약 50% 증가할 것으로 예상한다는 점 등이다. 메모리 산업에 대한 직접적 영향으로는 HBM4 수요 강세가 HBM 출하 증가로 이어지고, 전통 DRAM 가격 상승세는 둔화되나 수급 불균형은 2027년까지 확대될 수 있다는 전망이 제시된다. 이는 삼성전자 DS의 공급 배분(전통 DRAM 대비 HBM 비중 확대), 고객 인증(HBM4), 제품 믹스(HBM 중심), 투자 일정(파운드리 가동률 개선과 메모리 증설) 선택에 영향을 줄 수 있다. 다만 원문은 삼성의 구체적 생산능력·공정·수율·투자 계획을 제시하지 않으며, HBM4 고객 인증·실제 공급량·주문량은 미확인이다. 또한 원문은 삼성 모바일 사업이 3분기에 10억 달러 이상 손실을 기록할 수 있다고 언급하며, 이는 메모리 가격 상승이 세트 사업의 원가 부담으로 전이되는 상충 효과를 보여준다. 반대 근거로는 중국 메모리 업체 경쟁 심화, AI 자본지출 둔화 가능성, 원화 절상에 따른 이익 추정 하향, 주가 하락이 제시된다. 확인할 지표로는 10월 29일 삼성 3분기 전체 실적 발표에서의 4분기 메모리 가격·HBM 출하·AI 수요·주주 환원 정책 관련 코멘트, 트렌드포스의 DRAM 계약 가격 전망 갱신, HBM4 인증 진행 상황, 삼성 파운드리 가동률 추이 등이다. research_topics의 질문 중 생산능력·공정·수율·투자 계획, HBM 세대·스택·인증·패키징 제약, 서버 CPU·플랫폼의 실제 메모리 규격과 용량, 장비·소재·패키징 공급망 납기·증설·고객 인증, NAND·eSSD·HBF 개발·인증·상용화 단계에 대한 구체적 근거는 이 원문에서 확인되지 않아 미확인으로 남긴다.
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수집된 원문 v1의 분석에 제공된 본문 기준 · 14953자
# AI 수요 활황! 삼성, 3분기 이익 783% 급증 '100조 원 돌파' 전망, 기술업계 단일 분기 최고치
저자 [林 妤柔](https://technews.tw/author/yurou/ "由 林 妤柔 發表") | 게시일 2026년 10월 08일 11:25 | 분류 [Samsung](https://technews.tw/category/samsung-2/ "更多Samsung分類文章"), [칩](https://technews.tw/category/semiconductor/chip/ "更多晶片分類文章"), [메모리](https://technews.tw/category/semiconductor/chip/memory/ "更多記憶體分類文章") | [edit](https://technews.tw/wp-admin/post.php?action=edit&post=1625961)[](https://social-plugins.line.me/lineit/share?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2F2026%2F10%2F08%2Fsamsung-profit-on-ai-boom%2F)[](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2F2026%2F10%2F08%2Fsamsung-profit-on-ai-boom%2F)[](https://feedly.com/i/subscription/feed%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2Ftn-rss)[](https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2F2026%2F10%2F08%2Fsamsung-profit-on-ai-boom%2F)
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[](https://img.technews.tw/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/07161620/shutterstock_1686362245-800x533.jpg "AI 需求暢旺！三星估 Q3 獲利大飆 783%「破百兆韓圜」，創科技業單季新高")
AI 인프라 수요가 지속적으로 폭발하면서 메모리 칩 가격과 출하가 동반 강세를 보임에 따라, 삼성의 올해 3분기 이익이 기술업계 사상 최고치를 기록할 것으로 예상된다. 삼성은 7일 잠정 실적 전망을 발표하며 3분기 영업이익이 107.4조 원(약 801.7억 달러)에 달할 것으로 예상했는데, 이는 전년 동기 대비 약 9배 증가한 수치로 시장 예상을 상회할 뿐만 아니라 처음으로 100조 원을 돌파하는 것이다.
삼성이 발표한 잠정 실적 전망에 따르면, 2026년 3분기 영업이익은 107.4조 원으로 전년 동기 12.17조 원 대비 약 783% 급증하며, LSEG SmartEstimate가 예상한 106.1조 원을 소폭 상회한다. 최종 실적이 확인되면 삼성은 글로벌 최초로 단일 분기 영업이익 100조 원을 돌파한 기술 기업이 되며, 동시에 4분기 연속 영업이익 기록을 경신하게 되어 AI 인프라 투자의 빠른 성장이 글로벌 메모리 수급 격차를 더욱 확대했음을 보여준다.
매출 측면에서 삼성은 3분기 매출이 195조 원에 달해 전년 대비 127% 증가할 것으로 예상했는데, 이는 주로 AI 서버 수요가 지속적으로 상승하면서 DRAM, NAND 및 고대역폭 메모리(HBM) 수요가 동시에 증가한 데 기인한다.
로이터통신에 따르면, 삼성과 마이크론 모두 메모리 수급 불균형이 2028년까지 지속될 수 있다고 예상하지만, 중국 메모리 업체의 경쟁 심화와 향후 AI 자본지출 둔화 여부는 산업 중장기 수익성에 영향을 미치는 중요한 리스크로 남아 있다.
주목할 점은, 삼성이 다시 기록적인 이익을 달성했음에도 주가는 동반 상승하지 않았다는 것이다. 삼성 주가는 장 초반 약 0.2% 소폭 하락했으며, 같은 기간 KOSPI 지수 약 0.5% 하락보다는 양호한 성과를 보였다. 올해 6월 사상 최고치를 기록한 이후 삼성 주가는 현재 25% 이상 하락했는데, 이는 시장이 AI 열풍이 얼마나 지속될 수 있는지, 그리고 메모리 가격의 지속적인 상승 여력에 주목하기 시작했음을 반영한다.
현재 이익 성장 속도가 점차 둔화될 가능성에도 관심이 쏠리고 있다. 시장은 삼성의 4분기 이익이 전분기 대비 약 8.2% 증가할 것으로 예상하지만, 이는 3분기 약 20% 전분기 대비 증가율보다 현저히 낮은데, 메모리 상승세가 둔화될 수 있다는 이유에서다. 시장조사기관 트렌드포스는 2026년 4분기 전통 DRAM 계약 가격이 전분기 대비 약 10~15% 상승할 것으로 예상하며, 이는 2분기 약 60% 상승폭보다 훨씬 낮다.
또한, 최근 원화가 크게 절상되면서 삼성의 달러 표시 해외 매출을 원화로 환산한 금액이 축소되어, 분석가들이 일부 이익 추정치를 하향 조정했다. 미래에셋증권 시장 분석가 김석환은 시장의 관심 초점이 단순한 이익 성장에서 지난해부터 시작된 강력한 이익 성장이 지속성을 갖추고 있는지로 전환되었다고 지적했다.
분석가들은 메모리 수급 불균형이 2027년에 더 확대될 수 있으며, 재고가 제한적이어서 전통 DRAM 단위 출하량은 보합세를 유지할 것으로 예상되는 반면, HBM4에 대한 강력한 수요로 HBM 출하량은 전분기 대비 크게 증가할 수 있다고 예상한다. Douglas Research Advisory 시장 분석가 Douglas Kim은 삼성의 3분기 HBM 단위 출하량이 전분기 대비 약 50% 가까이 증가할 것으로 예상한다.
그러나 메모리 칩 경기의 호황은 삼성의 다른 사업, 특히 스마트폰과 소비자 가전 부문에 부품 비용 상승으로 인한 압박이라는 도전을 안겨주고 있다. 분석가들은 삼성 모바일 사업이 3분기에 10억 달러 이상의 손실을 기록할 수 있다고 지적했으며, 파운드리 사업은 고정비 부담이 크고 가동률이 여전히 낮아 적자 상태가 지속될 것으로 예상된다.
다만, 첨단 공정 수요가 증가하면서 파운드리 가동률은 향후 몇 분기 동안 점진적으로 개선될 것으로 예상되며, 삼성은 TSMC와의 첨단 파운드리 격차를 지속적으로 좁히고 있다. 삼성은 10월 29일 3분기 전체 실적을 발표할 예정이며, 시장은 4분기 메모리 가격, HBM 출하, AI 수요 및 주주 환원 정책에 대한 회사의 최신 견해에 주목하고 있다.
* [Samsung flags $80 billion profit on AI boom, highest quarterly for any tech company](https://www.reuters.com/business/samsung-q3-profit-jumps-783-ai-memory-boom-lifts-chip-earnings-2026-10-07/)
(첫 이미지 출처: shutterstock)
### 관련 기사:
* [DDR4 부족 2027년까지 연장! 다이와, 난야테크놀로지 수익성 칭찬하며 목표가 700위안으로 상향](https://technews.tw/2026/10/08/daiwa-see-nanya-technology-2026-09-revenue/ "DDR4 缺貨延至 2027 年！大和讚南亞科獲利，上修目標價至 700 元")
* [Marvell 신제품이 위협? 모건스탠리, 신화(信驊) 지지: 단기적으로 BMC 지위 흔들기 어려워, 목표가 24,000위안](https://technews.tw/2026/10/08/aspeed-technology-marvell/)
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[1. 삼성 이익 최고치, AI 수요 동력이 지속성을 갖추고 있는가?](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40371/)[2. 중국 업체 경쟁에 직면하여 삼성은 어떻게 메모리 리더십을 유지하는가?](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40372/)[3. 삼성 파운드리 적자, 첨단 공정으로 TSMC를 따라잡을 수 있을까?](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40373/)[4. 기록적 이익에도 주가 하락, 시장의 AI 거품 우려는 왜인가?](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40374/)[5. 칩 가격 상승이 휴대폰 사업에 충격, 삼성은 어떻게 비용 압박을 균형 잡는가?](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40375/)
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저자 [林 妤柔](https://technews.tw/author/yurou/ "由 林 妤柔 發表") | 게시일 2026년 10월 08일 11:25 | 분류 [Samsung](https://technews.tw/category/samsung-2/ "更多Samsung分類文章"), [칩](https://technews.tw/category/semiconductor/chip/ "更多晶片分類文章"), [메모리](https://technews.tw/category/semiconductor/chip/memory/ "更多記憶體分類文章") | [edit](https://technews.tw/wp-admin/post.php?action=edit&post=1625961)[](https://social-plugins.line.me/lineit/share?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2F2026%2F10%2F08%2Fsamsung-profit-on-ai-boom%2F)[](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2F2026%2F10%2F08%2Fsamsung-profit-on-ai-boom%2F)[](https://feedly.com/i/subscription/feed%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2Ftn-rss)[](https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2F2026%2F10%2F08%2Fsamsung-profit-on-ai-boom%2F)
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[](https://img.technews.tw/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/07161620/shutterstock_1686362245-800x533.jpg "AI 需求暢旺！三星估 Q3 獲利大飆 783%「破百兆韓圜」，創科技業單季新高")
AI 인프라 수요가 지속적으로 폭발하면서 메모리 칩 가격과 출하가 동반 강세를 보임에 따라, 삼성의 올해 3분기 이익이 기술업계 사상 최고치를 기록할 것으로 예상된다. 삼성은 7일 잠정 실적 전망을 발표하며 3분기 영업이익이 107.4조 원(약 801.7억 달러)에 달할 것으로 예상했는데, 이는 전년 동기 대비 약 9배 증가한 수치로 시장 예상을 상회할 뿐만 아니라 처음으로 100조 원을 돌파하는 것이다.
삼성이 발표한 잠정 실적 전망에 따르면, 2026년 3분기 영업이익은 107.4조 원으로 전년 동기 12.17조 원 대비 약 783% 급증하며, LSEG SmartEstimate가 예상한 106.1조 원을 소폭 상회한다. 최종 실적이 확인되면 삼성은 글로벌 최초로 단일 분기 영업이익 100조 원을 돌파한 기술 기업이 되며, 동시에 4분기 연속 영업이익 기록을 경신하게 되어 AI 인프라 투자의 빠른 성장이 글로벌 메모리 수급 격차를 더욱 확대했음을 보여준다.
매출 측면에서 삼성은 3분기 매출이 195조 원에 달해 전년 대비 127% 증가할 것으로 예상했는데, 이는 주로 AI 서버 수요가 지속적으로 상승하면서 DRAM, NAND 및 고대역폭 메모리(HBM) 수요가 동시에 증가한 데 기인한다.
로이터통신에 따르면, 삼성과 마이크론 모두 메모리 수급 불균형이 2028년까지 지속될 수 있다고 예상하지만, 중국 메모리 업체의 경쟁 심화와 향후 AI 자본지출 둔화 여부는 산업 중장기 수익성에 영향을 미치는 중요한 리스크로 남아 있다.
주목할 점은, 삼성이 다시 기록적인 이익을 달성했음에도 주가는 동반 상승하지 않았다는 것이다. 삼성 주가는 장 초반 약 0.2% 소폭 하락했으며, 같은 기간 KOSPI 지수 약 0.5% 하락보다는 양호한 성과를 보였다. 올해 6월 사상 최고치를 기록한 이후 삼성 주가는 현재 25% 이상 하락했는데, 이는 시장이 AI 열풍이 얼마나 지속될 수 있는지, 그리고 메모리 가격의 지속적인 상승 여력에 주목하기 시작했음을 반영한다.
현재 이익 성장 속도가 점차 둔화될 가능성에도 관심이 쏠리고 있다. 시장은 삼성의 4분기 이익이 전분기 대비 약 8.2% 증가할 것으로 예상하지만, 이는 3분기 약 20% 전분기 대비 증가율보다 현저히 낮은데, 메모리 상승세가 둔화될 수 있다는 이유에서다. 시장조사기관 트렌드포스는 2026년 4분기 전통 DRAM 계약 가격이 전분기 대비 약 10~15% 상승할 것으로 예상하며, 이는 2분기 약 60% 상승폭보다 훨씬 낮다.
또한, 최근 원화가 크게 절상되면서 삼성의 달러 표시 해외 매출을 원화로 환산한 금액이 축소되어, 분석가들이 일부 이익 추정치를 하향 조정했다. 미래에셋증권 시장 분석가 김석환은 시장의 관심 초점이 단순한 이익 성장에서 지난해부터 시작된 강력한 이익 성장이 지속성을 갖추고 있는지로 전환되었다고 지적했다.
분석가들은 메모리 수급 불균형이 2027년에 더 확대될 수 있으며, 재고가 제한적이어서 전통 DRAM 단위 출하량은 보합세를 유지할 것으로 예상되는 반면, HBM4에 대한 강력한 수요로 HBM 출하량은 전분기 대비 크게 증가할 수 있다고 예상한다. Douglas Research Advisory 시장 분석가 Douglas Kim은 삼성의 3분기 HBM 단위 출하량이 전분기 대비 약 50% 가까이 증가할 것으로 예상한다.
그러나 메모리 칩 경기의 호황은 삼성의 다른 사업, 특히 스마트폰과 소비자 가전 부문에 부품 비용 상승으로 인한 압박이라는 도전을 안겨주고 있다. 분석가들은 삼성 모바일 사업이 3분기에 10억 달러 이상의 손실을 기록할 수 있다고 지적했으며, 파운드리 사업은 고정비 부담이 크고 가동률이 여전히 낮아 적자 상태가 지속될 것으로 예상된다.
다만, 첨단 공정 수요가 증가하면서 파운드리 가동률은 향후 몇 분기 동안 점진적으로 개선될 것으로 예상되며, 삼성은 TSMC와의 첨단 파운드리 격차를 지속적으로 좁히고 있다. 삼성은 10월 29일 3분기 전체 실적을 발표할 예정이며, 시장은 4분기 메모리 가격, HBM 출하, AI 수요 및 주주 환원 정책에 대한 회사의 최신 견해에 주목하고 있다.
* [Samsung flags $80 billion profit on AI boom, highest quarterly for any tech company](https://www.reuters.com/business/samsung-q3-profit-jumps-783-ai-memory-boom-lifts-chip-earnings-2026-10-07/)
(첫 이미지 출처: shutterstock)
### 관련 기사:
* [DDR4 부족 2027년까지 연장! 다이와, 난야테크놀로지 수익성 칭찬하며 목표가 700위안으로 상향](https://technews.tw/2026/10/08/daiwa-see-nanya-technology-2026-09-revenue/ "DDR4 缺貨延至 2027 年！大和讚南亞科獲利，上修目標價至 700 元")
* [Marvell 신제품이 위협? 모건스탠리, 신화(信驊) 지지: 단기적으로 BMC 지위 흔들기 어려워, 목표가 24,000위안](https://technews.tw/2026/10/08/aspeed-technology-marvell/)
글을 읽고 도움이 되었다면, 응원을 보내주시겠습니까?
[커피 한 잔 사주세요](https://technews.tw/2026/10/08/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/)
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## 더 알고 싶은 것이 있나요? TechNews Smart가 알려드립니다
[1. 삼성 이익 최고치, AI 수요 동력이 지속성을 갖추고 있는가?](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40371/)[2. 중국 업체 경쟁에 직면하여 삼성은 어떻게 메모리 리더십을 유지하는가?](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40372/)[3. 삼성 파운드리 적자, 첨단 공정으로 TSMC를 따라잡을 수 있을까?](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40373/)[4. 기록적 이익에도 주가 하락, 시장의 AI 거품 우려는 왜인가?](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40374/)[5. 칩 가격 상승이 휴대폰 사업에 충격, 삼성은 어떻게 비용 압박을 균형 잡는가?](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40375/)
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본문이 길어 33369자 중 14953자만 처리했습니다.
브리프용 요약 초안
삼성전자가 2026년 3분기 영업이익 107.4조 원(전년 대비 783% 증가)을 잠정 전망하며 기술 기업 최초로 단일 분기 100조 원을 돌파할 것으로 예상된다. AI 서버 수요로 DRAM·NAND·HBM 수요가 동반 증가했으며, 삼성과 마이크론은 메모리 수급 불균형이 2028년까지 지속될 것으로 전망했다. 다만 트렌드포스는 4분기 전통 DRAM 계약 가격 상승폭이 10~15%로 둔화될 것으로 예상하고, 중국 업체 경쟁 심화와 AI 자본지출 둔화 가능성이 중장기 리스크로 제기된다.
원문 텍스트
원문 열기 ↗# AI 需求暢旺！三星估 Q3 獲利大飆 783%「破百兆韓圜」，創科技業單季新高
作者[林 妤柔](https://technews.tw/author/yurou/ "由 林 妤柔 發表") | 發布日期 2026 年 10 月 08 日 11:25 | 分類[Samsung](https://technews.tw/category/samsung-2/ "更多Samsung分類文章") , [晶片](https://technews.tw/category/semiconductor/chip/ "更多晶片分類文章") , [記憶體](https://technews.tw/category/semiconductor/chip/memory/ "更多記憶體分類文章") | [edit](https://technews.tw/wp-admin/post.php?action=edit&post=1625961)[](https://social-plugins.line.me/lineit/share?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2F2026%2F10%2F08%2Fsamsung-profit-on-ai-boom%2F)[](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2F2026%2F10%2F08%2Fsamsung-profit-on-ai-boom%2F)[](https://feedly.com/i/subscription/feed%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2Ftn-rss)[](https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2F2026%2F10%2F08%2Fsamsung-profit-on-ai-boom%2F)
[See Translation](https://technews.tw/2026/10/08/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/)
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* [](javascript:url_open_center('https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://technews.tw/2026/10/08/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/'))
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[](https://img.technews.tw/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/07161620/shutterstock_1686362245-800x533.jpg "AI 需求暢旺！三星估 Q3 獲利大飆 783%「破百兆韓圜」，創科技業單季新高")
受惠 AI 基礎設施需求持續爆發，記憶體晶片價格與出貨同步走強，三星今年第三季獲利可望創下科技業史上新高。三星 7 日公布初步財測，預估第三季營業利益達 107.4 兆韓圜（約 801.7 億美元），年增近 9 倍，不僅超越市場預期，也將首度突破 100 兆韓圜大關。
根據三星公布的初步財測，2026 年第三季營業利益預估為 107.4 兆韓圜，較去年同期的 12.17 兆韓圜大增約 783%，略高於 LSEG SmartEstimate 預估的 106.1 兆韓圜。若最終財報確認，三星將成為全球首家單季營業利益突破 100 兆韓圜的科技企業，同時連續第四季刷新營業利益紀錄，凸顯 AI 基礎設施投資快速成長，已進一步推升全球記憶體供需缺口。
營收方面，三星預估第三季營收將達 195 兆韓圜、年增 127%，主要受 AI 伺服器需求持續攀升，帶動 DRAM、NAND 以及高頻寬記憶體（HBM）需求同步增加。
據路透社報導，三星與美光均預期，記憶體供需失衡可能延續至 2028 年，不過中國記憶體業者競爭加劇，以及未來 AI 資本支出是否出現放緩，仍是影響產業中長期獲利的重要風險。
值得注意的是，儘管三星再度繳出創紀錄的獲利成績，股價卻未同步大漲。三星股價早盤小幅下跌約 0.2%，表現甚至優於同期 KOSPI 指數約 0.5% 的跌幅。自今年 6 月創下歷史新高後，三星股價目前已回落逾 25%，反映市場開始關注 AI 熱潮究竟能維持多久，以及記憶體價格持續上漲的空間。
目前也開始關注獲利成長速度可能逐步放緩。市場預期三星第四季獲利將季增約 8.2%，但明顯低於第三季約 20% 季增幅，理由是記憶體漲勢可能降溫。市場研究機構 TrendForce 預期，2026 年第四季傳統 DRAM 合約價格將季增約 10%～15%，遠低於第二季約 60% 漲幅。
此外，近期韓圜大幅升值，使三星以美元計價的海外營收換算為韓圜後的金額縮減，分析師因此下修部分獲利預估。Mirae Asset Securities 市場分析師 Kim Seok-hwan 指出，市場關注焦點已從單純的獲利成長，轉向去年開始的強勁獲利成長是否具備持續性。
分析師預期，記憶體供需失衡局面可能在 2027 年進一步擴大，由於庫存有限，傳統 DRAM 單位出貨量預計持平，而對 HBM4 強勁需求，HBM 出貨量可能比上一季大幅增加。Douglas Research Advisory 市場分析師 Douglas Kim 預期，三星第三季 HBM 單位出貨量較上季成長近 50%。
不過，記憶體晶片景氣蓬勃發展，也為三星其他業務帶來挑戰，尤其是智慧型手機與消費電子部門，正面臨零組件成本上升所帶來的壓力。分析師指出，三星行動事業第三季可能出現超過 10 億美元的虧損；晶圓代工事業則預計仍處於虧損狀態，主因固定成本負擔較重及產能利用率仍偏低。
不過，隨著先進製程需求增加，晶圓代工產能利用率預計未來幾季逐步改善，三星也持續縮小與台積電在先進晶圓代工領域的差距。三星預計在 10 月 29 日公布第三季完整財報，市場亦密切關注公司對第四季記憶體價格、HBM 出貨、AI 需求，以及股東回饋政策的最新看法。
* [Samsung flags $80 billion profit on AI boom, highest quarterly for any tech company](https://www.reuters.com/business/samsung-q3-profit-jumps-783-ai-memory-boom-lifts-chip-earnings-2026-10-07/)
（首圖來源：shutterstock）
### 延伸閱讀：
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* [Marvell 新品成威脅？大摩力挺信驊：短期難撼動 BMC 地位、目標價上看 24,000 元](https://technews.tw/2026/10/08/aspeed-technology-marvell/)
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* [漢磊9月營收6.63 億元](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/episil-3707-202609-financial-report/ "漢磊9月營收6.63 億元")
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* [勤誠9月營收月增0.8%](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/chenbro-8210-202609-financial-report/ "勤誠9月營收月增0.8%")
* [旺矽9月營收20.48 億元](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/mpi-6223-202609-financial-report/ "旺矽9月營收20.48 億元")
* [宜特9月營收月減3.1%](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/ist-3289-202609-financial-report/ "宜特9月營收月減3.1%")
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* [[ 專欄 ]央行總裁雖然選擇「走自己的路」，但要確認沒有走錯路](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/09/22/central-bank-governor-independent-course-ensure-not-wrong/ "央行總裁雖然選擇「走自己的路」，但要確認沒有走錯路")
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作者[林 妤柔](https://technews.tw/author/yurou/ "由 林 妤柔 發表") | 發布日期 2026 年 10 月 08 日 11:25 | 分類[Samsung](https://technews.tw/category/samsung-2/ "更多Samsung分類文章") , [晶片](https://technews.tw/category/semiconductor/chip/ "更多晶片分類文章") , [記憶體](https://technews.tw/category/semiconductor/chip/memory/ "更多記憶體分類文章") | [edit](https://technews.tw/wp-admin/post.php?action=edit&post=1625961)[](https://social-plugins.line.me/lineit/share?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2F2026%2F10%2F08%2Fsamsung-profit-on-ai-boom%2F)[](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2F2026%2F10%2F08%2Fsamsung-profit-on-ai-boom%2F)[](https://feedly.com/i/subscription/feed%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2Ftn-rss)[](https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftechnews.tw%2F2026%2F10%2F08%2Fsamsung-profit-on-ai-boom%2F)
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[](https://img.technews.tw/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/07161620/shutterstock_1686362245-800x533.jpg "AI 需求暢旺！三星估 Q3 獲利大飆 783%「破百兆韓圜」，創科技業單季新高")
受惠 AI 基礎設施需求持續爆發，記憶體晶片價格與出貨同步走強，三星今年第三季獲利可望創下科技業史上新高。三星 7 日公布初步財測，預估第三季營業利益達 107.4 兆韓圜（約 801.7 億美元），年增近 9 倍，不僅超越市場預期，也將首度突破 100 兆韓圜大關。
根據三星公布的初步財測，2026 年第三季營業利益預估為 107.4 兆韓圜，較去年同期的 12.17 兆韓圜大增約 783%，略高於 LSEG SmartEstimate 預估的 106.1 兆韓圜。若最終財報確認，三星將成為全球首家單季營業利益突破 100 兆韓圜的科技企業，同時連續第四季刷新營業利益紀錄，凸顯 AI 基礎設施投資快速成長，已進一步推升全球記憶體供需缺口。
營收方面，三星預估第三季營收將達 195 兆韓圜、年增 127%，主要受 AI 伺服器需求持續攀升，帶動 DRAM、NAND 以及高頻寬記憶體（HBM）需求同步增加。
據路透社報導，三星與美光均預期，記憶體供需失衡可能延續至 2028 年，不過中國記憶體業者競爭加劇，以及未來 AI 資本支出是否出現放緩，仍是影響產業中長期獲利的重要風險。
值得注意的是，儘管三星再度繳出創紀錄的獲利成績，股價卻未同步大漲。三星股價早盤小幅下跌約 0.2%，表現甚至優於同期 KOSPI 指數約 0.5% 的跌幅。自今年 6 月創下歷史新高後，三星股價目前已回落逾 25%，反映市場開始關注 AI 熱潮究竟能維持多久，以及記憶體價格持續上漲的空間。
目前也開始關注獲利成長速度可能逐步放緩。市場預期三星第四季獲利將季增約 8.2%，但明顯低於第三季約 20% 季增幅，理由是記憶體漲勢可能降溫。市場研究機構 TrendForce 預期，2026 年第四季傳統 DRAM 合約價格將季增約 10%～15%，遠低於第二季約 60% 漲幅。
此外，近期韓圜大幅升值，使三星以美元計價的海外營收換算為韓圜後的金額縮減，分析師因此下修部分獲利預估。Mirae Asset Securities 市場分析師 Kim Seok-hwan 指出，市場關注焦點已從單純的獲利成長，轉向去年開始的強勁獲利成長是否具備持續性。
分析師預期，記憶體供需失衡局面可能在 2027 年進一步擴大，由於庫存有限，傳統 DRAM 單位出貨量預計持平，而對 HBM4 強勁需求，HBM 出貨量可能比上一季大幅增加。Douglas Research Advisory 市場分析師 Douglas Kim 預期，三星第三季 HBM 單位出貨量較上季成長近 50%。
不過，記憶體晶片景氣蓬勃發展，也為三星其他業務帶來挑戰，尤其是智慧型手機與消費電子部門，正面臨零組件成本上升所帶來的壓力。分析師指出，三星行動事業第三季可能出現超過 10 億美元的虧損；晶圓代工事業則預計仍處於虧損狀態，主因固定成本負擔較重及產能利用率仍偏低。
不過，隨著先進製程需求增加，晶圓代工產能利用率預計未來幾季逐步改善，三星也持續縮小與台積電在先進晶圓代工領域的差距。三星預計在 10 月 29 日公布第三季完整財報，市場亦密切關注公司對第四季記憶體價格、HBM 出貨、AI 需求，以及股東回饋政策的最新看法。
* [Samsung flags $80 billion profit on AI boom, highest quarterly for any tech company](https://www.reuters.com/business/samsung-q3-profit-jumps-783-ai-memory-boom-lifts-chip-earnings-2026-10-07/)
（首圖來源：shutterstock）
### 延伸閱讀：
* [DDR4 缺貨延至 2027 年！大和讚南亞科獲利，上修目標價至 700 元](https://technews.tw/2026/10/08/daiwa-see-nanya-technology-2026-09-revenue/ "DDR4 缺貨延至 2027 年！大和讚南亞科獲利，上修目標價至 700 元")
* [Marvell 新品成威脅？大摩力挺信驊：短期難撼動 BMC 地位、目標價上看 24,000 元](https://technews.tw/2026/10/08/aspeed-technology-marvell/)
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## 還想知道什麼？TechNews Smart 告訴你
[1. 三星獲利創高，AI 需求動能是否具備持續性？](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40371/)[2. 面對中國業者競爭，三星如何維持記憶體領先？](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40372/)[3. 三星晶圓代工虧損，能否靠先進製程追趕 TSMC？](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40373/)[4. 獲利創紀錄股價卻回落，市場對 AI 泡沫擔憂為何？](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40374/)[5. 晶片漲價衝擊手機業務，三星如何平衡成本壓力？](https://technews.tw/ai-agent/samsung-profit-on-ai-boom/40375/)
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半導體
(2026年10月7日)
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PR
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PR
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PR
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半導體
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半導體
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* [如何才能睡得好？日本研究找到自然處方](https://technews.tw/2026/10/08/how-to-get-a-good-nights-sleep-japanese-research-finds-a-natural-remedy/ "如何才能睡得好？日本研究找到自然處方")
* [AI 破解 217 年懸案，GPT-6 Astra 6 小時解開拿破崙時代軍事密函](https://technews.tw/2026/10/05/chatgpt-6-astra-cracks-217-year-old-napoleonic-code-in-just-six-hours/ "AI 破解 217 年懸案，GPT-6 Astra 6 小時解開拿破崙時代軍事密函")
* [「AI 寫程式已超越我巔峰時期」，Google 前執行長施密特：下代工程師將成為 AI 架構師](https://technews.tw/2026/10/02/former-google-ceo-eric-schmidt-to-programmers/ "「AI 寫程式已超越我巔峰時期」，Google 前執行長施密特：下代工程師將成為 AI 架構師")
* [打字不用找按鍵，Google 日本今年推「輸送帶鍵盤」讓字母自己過來](https://ccc.technews.tw/2026/10/03/google-shows-off-a-wild-keyboard-that-is-literally-an-excavator-of-keys/ "打字不用找按鍵，Google 日本今年推「輸送帶鍵盤」讓字母自己過來")
* [台積電投資亞利桑那州創美國史上最大規模，引發中國不滿與警告](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/07/tsmcs-investment-in-arizona-creates-the-largest-impact-in-us-history/ "台積電投資亞利桑那州創美國史上最大規模，引發中國不滿與警告")
* [Adobe 掰掰？開源免費創作軟體「Crafting Apps」公開](https://technews.tw/2026/10/07/crafting-apps/ "Adobe 掰掰？開源免費創作軟體「Crafting Apps」公開")
### 財訊快報
* [弘塑9月營收7.47 億元](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/09/gptc-3131-202609-financial-report/ "弘塑9月營收7.47 億元")
* [宣德9月營收17.23 億元](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/speed-tech-5457-202609-financial-report/ "宣德9月營收17.23 億元")
* [嘉澤9月營收33.57 億元](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/lotes-3533-202609-financial-report/ "嘉澤9月營收33.57 億元")
* [旭隼9月營收18.73 億元](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/voltronic-6409-202609-financial-report/ "旭隼9月營收18.73 億元")
* [漢磊9月營收6.63 億元](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/episil-3707-202609-financial-report/ "漢磊9月營收6.63 億元")
* [久元9月營收月增24.7%](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/ytec-6261-202609-financial-report/ "久元9月營收月增24.7%")
* [嘉晶9月營收月增1.2%](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/epi-3016-202609-financial-report/ "嘉晶9月營收月增1.2%")
* [勤誠9月營收月增0.8%](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/chenbro-8210-202609-financial-report/ "勤誠9月營收月增0.8%")
* [旺矽9月營收20.48 億元](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/mpi-6223-202609-financial-report/ "旺矽9月營收20.48 億元")
* [宜特9月營收月減3.1%](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/10/08/ist-3289-202609-financial-report/ "宜特9月營收月減3.1%")
[更多>>](https://technews.tw/category/finance/finance-report/)
### 編輯精選
* [[ 專欄 ]美中客觀條件未變，華府「川習會」難有大突破](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/09/30/us-china-objective-environment-trump-xi-summit-washington-unlikely-major-breakthrough/ "美中客觀條件未變，華府「川習會」難有大突破")
* [[ 專欄 ]以 K 型經濟為減少最低工資調幅，對企業不一定是好消息](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/09/24/k-shaped-economy-reduced-minimum-wage-adjustment-not-good-news-businesses/ "以 K 型經濟為減少最低工資調幅，對企業不一定是好消息")
* [[ 專欄 ]央行總裁雖然選擇「走自己的路」，但要確認沒有走錯路](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/09/22/central-bank-governor-independent-course-ensure-not-wrong/ "央行總裁雖然選擇「走自己的路」，但要確認沒有走錯路")
* [[ 專訪 ]無畏玻璃基板來勢洶洶！Resonac 揭先進封裝「三大挑戰」：有機基板短期難取代](https://technews.tw/2026/09/10/resonac-cto-hidenori-abe-interview/ "無畏玻璃基板來勢洶洶！Resonac 揭先進封裝「三大挑戰」：有機基板短期難取代")
* [[ 專欄 ]電價調整難兩全，分級管理用電需求才能穩物價、保供電](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/09/10/government-tiered-management-electricity-demand-price-adjustments-balance-price-stability-power-supply-security/ "電價調整難兩全，分級管理用電需求才能穩物價、保供電")
* [[ 專欄 ]「洗產地」傷害的不只有投資人利益，也傷害美國對台灣的「信賴」](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/09/03/origin-fraud-harms-investor-interests-us-trust-taiwan/ "「洗產地」傷害的不只有投資人利益，也傷害美國對台灣的「信賴」")
* [[ 專欄 ]因應美國擴大伊朗制裁，台商宜檢視中國銀行資產風險](https://finance.technews.tw/2026/08/28/us-iran-sanctions-reduce-china-banking-ties-avoid-impact/ "因應美國擴大伊朗制裁，台商宜檢視中國銀行資產風險")
* [[ 專題 ]AI 機櫃旁的電力心臟，拆解 Power Rack](https://technews.tw/2026/08/26/what-does-power-rack-look-like/ "AI 機櫃旁的電力心臟，拆解 Power Rack")
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